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Housing News Update: November 9, 2009 November 9, 2009

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Housing News: November 2, 2009 November 2, 2009

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Housing News: October 29, 2009 October 29, 2009

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The ups and downs of the real estate market…always keeps us in suspense..please read on…








Housing News: October 28, 2009 October 28, 2009

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We take a “closer” look on real estate and mortgage news!


Housing News: October 27, 2009 October 27, 2009

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Housing News: October 26, 2009 October 26, 2009

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Posted by John Watch in News Feed: Tags:housing market,property data,public records, real estate news







Housing Market Afternoon News: 9/29/09 September 29, 2009

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For statistical reports on property data from public records and property valuation click here.

Real estate is: Cyclical, Seasonal and Emotional

Freddie to Door Knock Delinquent Borrowers

The Bulls and Bears of Real Estate 

FDIC Expected to Require Banks to Prepay Fees

July Case-Shiller Numbers

Is it Time to Recognize Reality?

Mortgage Assistance Program for Homeowners

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A Declining Inventory of Unsold Homes September 28, 2009

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As the news of declining sales for existing homes has captured headlines as of late, the underlying highlight of a declining inventory of unsold homes is encouraging news for the housing market.  At the end of August, total housing inventory dropped 10.8% to 3.82 million existing homes for sale, representing a proposed 8.5-month supply and the lowest level seen in a year (not seasonally adjusted).  Real estate is cyclical, seasonal and emotional, so declining sales for existing homes is expected, as the seasonal cycle wraps up and the $8,000 tax credit comes to a close.  What’s more significant is the decline in housing inventory.

The Housing in Crisis report discussed the extreme oversupply of housing as a primary factor in the housing boom.  Using this report, which utilizes a 3.5 million growth rate in population at a 2.7 average unit size, 1.3 million new housing units can be absorbed annually.  This means that it will take three years for a complete housing absorption in the market.  Until this happens, property values will remain flat.

What would be interesting to know is the details of the 3.82 million existing homes on the market. Does this number include new construction?  What exactly qualifies as an existing home? Based on various reports I’ve searched, the 3.82 million represents homes available for sale which would not include new construction if true.  Regardless, this news of declining inventory is a great sign of steps in that necessary direction.  As the market corrects itself with property values, inventory and prices, a housing recovery is in place.

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Housing Market News: 9/28/09 September 28, 2009

Posted by John Watch in AccuriZ Reports.
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For statistical reports on property data from public records and property valuation click here.

Where real estate seems to be hitting a bottom

Real Estate is Cyclical, Seasonal and Emotional

Fed’s weekly MBS purchase hold steady at $25.6bn

The Bears and the Bulls of Real Estate

New Home Sales Lose Momentum in August

Square Footage and Median Price Differentials

American Migration Trends

Negative Bond Returns Coverage with Mortgage Miracle

The Economic Recovery Continues

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Manhattan Condo Market Projected to Stabilize: Glass is Half Full and Topping Off! August 12, 2009

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The Manhattan Condominium Market is about to “shock the skeptics”.  There have been numerous reports published by noted “Manhattan Experts”, but a recent article in Crain’s Business week begs of the question “Who is manipulating What and Why? (See the NYC Square Footage Report) (See our repsonse to the Crain’s Business Report)

Has a “Shadow” fallen on the NYC condo market, or is it just another game of smoke and mirrors?  We thank the New York City Department of Finance for enabling those who have the desire to do the actual analysis, assuming one has the ability to do so.  The Department of Finance has provided public records of a rolling sales history since 2003.  This represents all property sales in New York City;  not listings, not possible listings and not sales that didn’t close or the seller backed out.  But Real Sales data! 

DoF also provides public records to the Assessment Rolls for Class I, II, III and IV Properties.  From this Assessment Roll we can find out how many properties exist in each borough and when the property was built.  An individual with some basic computer skills can than run a query to append the sales file with the Assessment file.

Once completed, a further level of skill is required; not a lot of skill, but just a little.  Invalid sales should be stripped out of the analysis.  An invalid sale would be a property that transferred for less than $1,000 dollars.  As a seasoned valuation analyst, I would actually go an additional step and remove all sales that sold for under a $125 per square foot in Manhattan.  The simple fact is that such sales would not be representative of the market and do not come close to representing the actual cost of construction.

So common sense prevails.   In the end, a valid set of sales and property data is available for analysis. The table below indicates that the average and median sales price for condos is declining at a rate of about 8% for the first six months of 2009.  This is much lower than some reports have indicated, but HOLD ON.. there’s more.

Manhattan Condo Market 1

Source: AccuriZ.com

Manhattan Condo Market 2

Source: AccuriZ.com

The chart above considers the rolling average of sales from July 2008 to July 2009.  We have applied this property data to adjust for the over correction in the markets and the seasonal affect of winter sales.  Based on the trend line, we are projecting that for the months of July, August and September sales activity will increase and property values will adjust upward.  Furthermore, the 4th Quarter – which usually shows weaker activity and valuation – will indicate a level of stability.

In short, when you analyze data with a known common factor such as “Square Footage”, manipulation of the data is difficult.  Combine this with an open policy of NYC to provide data free for analysis when it used to cost over $20,000, analyst can now openly check one another.

There is a true check and balance and the latest reports about the Manhattan market are misleading.

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