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NYC doesn’t have Shadow Inventory, just Smart Investors August 11, 2009

Posted by John Watch in AccuriZ Reports, News Feed.
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The current building supply in New York City is in balance. (In response to Crain’s NY Business, “Shadow Units Cast Pall”)

According to the US Census and other public records on property data, there were 3.328 million Housing Units for NYC in 2008.  Of this, 61,000 rental units were held vacant and 26,500 owner occupied units held vacant.  The total number of units held vacant in NYC is 2.6% of the total housing units. This is well below the National Average of 13.8%. (See the Housing In Crisis report for more details).

Remember that Real Estate is three things: Cyclical, Seasonal and Emotional. Population growth is over 390,000 people since 2000.  This represents over 43,750 individuals per year or 16,203 New Households per year.  Public records indicated the growth in housing units from 2000 to 2008 consisted of 29,006 new Class I Structures for a total of 53,567 new housing units. Class II and Class IV properties increased by 3,472 for Walk-up and Elevator Apartments accounting for over 97,583 new housing units and there were 26,699 new condominiums built.  All told, this property development can accommodate a population of 461,167 individuals with an average Household Size of 2.7.  

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This does not consider the temporary housing for college students and foreign workers.  Nor does it accurately reflect that most condominium units are owned with a population size less than 2.  If one considers the unique trends of Manhattan, the current building supply in New York City, as stated above, is in balance.

New York City does not have a Shadow Inventory, just smart investors.  Why sell when the housing market is weak? Hold on a year and get at least 10% more for your property.  We are confusing a smart investor/developer with a property owner who panics.  When you can rent and wait out the market, that is smart.  Developers, unlike banks, know that dumping product drops values. 

Where did all of the common sense go?  Sales activity is down because unless you need to sell, you sit tight.  Determining current housing market values based on reduced sales activity is not only misleading, but just flat our irresponsible.

For more information regarding the housing market, property searches and real estate reports, CLICK HERE.

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Mortgage Modification Plan Too Complex? August 10, 2009

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Complex? Public records on property data show that homeowners are not getting the help fast enough. Maybe the Mortgage Assistance Program would be more beneficial for homeowners.

Via theRealDeal.com

“Only 15 percent of eligible homeowners have been offered loan modifications since the federal government’s mortgage modification plan went into effect in March. Ken Rosen, chairman of the UC Berkeley Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics, and John Geanakoplos, a professor of economics at Yale Univeristy, talked to MSNBC about how the program has worked so far. Rosen said he does not think the mortgage industry has the capacity to handle a program as complicated as the government’s mortgage modification plan. Geanakoplos said it is important to reduce the principal amounts on mortgages that are at risk of going into foreclosure. “

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Afternoon Real Estate News: 8/10/09 August 10, 2009

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NYC Square Footage and Median Price Differentials

Fed Focusing on Real-Estate Recession as Barnanke Convenes FOMC

Real Estate is: Cyclical, Seasonal and Emotional

Foreclosure Crisis Spreads from Subprime to Prime Mortgages

Mortgage Assistance Program for Homeowners

Mortgage Rates Rise to 6-Month High Above 5%

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Freddie Mac’s Outlook Cautious about Seasonal Home Sales August 10, 2009

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After releasing a report on positive 2nd Quarter gains – with some gains attributed to the slight uptick in home sales – Freddie Mac remains cautious with their property data of the housing market. Remember that real estate is three things: Cyclical, Seasonal and Emotional.

“While we are seeing some early signs pointing to a housing recovery — including a modest uptick in house prices in some markets — our outlook remains cautious due to rising foreclosures, growing unemployment, tight lending standards and buyers’ reluctance to re-enter the market,” Interim CEO John Koskinen said.

What are your predictions for Fall home sales?  Will the public records show that we will continue to see improvements in the housing market? Or will there be some declines as the spring/summer season comes to a close?

For more information regarding Real Estate Reports and the Mortgage Assistance Program, visit AccuriZ HERE.

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Staten Island Square Footage and Median Price Differentials August 7, 2009

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A new AccuriZ report titled “Square Footage and Median Price Differentials,” highlights the property data and  sales activity of New York City and the differnces between median sale price and price per square foot. Below is an excerpt from the Staten Island section of the report. To see the full Staten Island report, as well as the additional boroughs, CLICK HERE.
 
Real Estate is like a set of Russian Nesting Dolls.  Analysts tend to focus on the entire market, with minimal effort given to the underlying components.  As you examine various segments of the markets, different pattern emerge. Generally in real estate there are three rules:  Location, Location and Location.   And in the current market, if you do not have to sell you don’t.
 
It is comprised of three elements:  Cyclical, Seasonal and Emotional. . The present market comprises of all three, which is extremely rare.
 
Change by Property Type Staten Island

 Public records show that Staten Island is experiencing the slowest value decline of all of the Boroughs at -5.17%.  In complete opposite of the other Boroughs, Staten Island is experiencing a greater decline in the Single Family market, but showing increases in two to three family units, as well as properties with a residential unit and commercial unit. 

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Enroll into AccuriZ.com and Receive a Free Trial! July 28, 2009

Posted by John Watch in AccuriZ News.
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AccuriZ Report Header 384x159

That’s right.

Enroll into AccuriZ today and receive a free trial for up to 24 hours to explore the property data and public records of your choice! With over 40 million properties nationwide, AccuriZ gives you the accurate and reliable information you need to conduct your business.

All you have to do is go to AccuriZ.com and enroll with an email and password. Once we receive your email, you will be receiving a promotional code to explore the power of the AccuriZ database for 24 hours. While you’re there, be sure to check out our real estate reports.

It’s easy.

So vist us, enroll, and start your search today!

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Halting Home Construction Key to Recovery, Warren Buffett Confirms July 14, 2009

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Excerpts from CNBC.COM

Warren Buffett confirms what few analyst have been reporting; home construction spearheaded the recession and halting it is the first step to recovery.

“There is no silver bullet,” Buffett adds. “The original cause of this was the housing bubble… we built a couple million housing units a year… surprise we had too many houses.. you can’t work that off in a day, week or month. The best thing we can do is not to be building a lot of new houses.”

Months ago, the Housing in Crisis report produced by AccuriZ indicated the impact of home construction on the economic crisis.

Public records show that from 2000 to 2008, 15.1 million homes were constructed. When the property data is weighted against natural population growth – even including the influx of illegal immigrants – there was a substantial amount of excess housing. Given the average household size, the population would have had to increase by 40 million since 2000 to absorb the housing. In actuality, it has only increased 25 million, well short of lofty housing expectations. At the end of 2008, 5 million homes were unoccupied. With rising foreclosures and banks holding onto more properties soon to be foreclosed, total absorption of home construction would take over a year.

[“There is no silver bullet,” Buffett adds. “The original cause of this was the housing bubble… we built a couple million housing units a year… surprise we had too many houses.. you can’t work that off in a day, week or month. The best thing we can do is not to be building a lot of new houses.”]

But rising numbers in building permit applications and home construction threaten this statistic. The same process of oversupply that Buffet says initiated the crisis is being permitted to continue. If any significant signs of recovery are to occur, home construction must remain at its natural cycle of 500,000 to 600,000 homes a year until the absoprtion of the excess is completed. Hopefully now that Buffett has reiterated this point, people become aware of the problem that lies ahead. The welfare of an entire population should not be sacrificed for the benefit of a few.

“That’s tough on the homebuilders but that’s the prescription for getting supply and demand back in balance,” Buffett says. 

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Causes of the Housing Bust Part III: Conclusion July 9, 2009

Posted by John Watch in AccuriZ Reports.
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housing-market-crisis

How does one create additional supply when the population is not growing? 

The answer was to lower the ownership standards and permit those who could not afford home ownership the ability to do so with No-doc, No Asset verification loans.   Home ownership is based on decades of proven lending standards since the Great Depression.  So, did we lower standards to meet demand or were standards lowered to create demand?  In either case, the result is the same:

Did analysts conclude that a loan made to an unqualified buyer at a lower loan amount would be offset by a quality loan from a qualified owner?   Did 3.5 million new home buyers in the market cause a “bubble”?  Did developers, who needed new home buyers to stimulate the housing market ignore supply and demand factors out of greed or just bad analysis?  And finally were new communities in warmer climates, notably Florida developed to attract  those preparing  for retirement or did an influx in migration cause development?

According to public records and property data, there is no less than 4 million excess residential units in the United States, of this over 70% are single family properties.  Given current population growth estimates and natural building activity needs, an absorption cycle of no less than three years will be needed before the housing industry experiences a significant increase in housing starts and achieves development of over 1 million units per annum.

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Causes of Housing Bust Part II: Housing Affordability July 8, 2009

Posted by John Watch in AccuriZ Reports.
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Reported from: Housing In Crisis

Housing Affordability factors have been key in the progression of the economic downturn, according to the latest report by AccuriZ entitled ‘Housing In Crisis.’

Housing Affordability

Housing Affordability

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Based on AccuriZ property data and public records, historical trends of the median sale price of homes and the median income of owners has fallen slightly under 3. In the recent decade however, the rate is slightly above 4. “Many housing analysts site this factor for justification of further declines in the overall value of housing. There is sufficient evidence from the banking industry that can be used to counter this argument,” as stated in the report.

When home ownership standards were lightened, there was a surge. “Beginning in the late 90’s the percentage of home ownership began to increase, reaching a peak of approximately 71.8% in late 2006 early 2007. This represented an increase in ownership of approximately 3.5 million housing units for individuals who previously rented, ” the report said. This is all while renter levels remained stable. People who previously weren’t qualified for mortgages now had the ability to own, and they did.

So the question is, which came first? Was there an initial oversupply of housing? And because of these circumstances, mortgage standards were relieved to fulfill the overwhelming vacancy? Or were the mortgage standards relaxed, and because of this new surge in housing demand, home construction rapidly increased? We have reason to be believe that it was the former. But whatever the case is, these two critical pieces of information; oversupply and ownership surge played a pivotal part in the boom and the bust of this recent economic cycle.

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Property Taxes Challenged by Homeowners July 6, 2009

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Reported by New York Times.

“Homeowners across the country are challenging their property tax bills in droves as the value of their homes drop, threatening local governments with another big drain on their budgets.”

Looking at public records, home values are declining and homeowners are looking to appeal the overvalued taxes on their homes, in most cases in desperation to keep the homes they are in .

Predicted by AccuriZ months ago on page 10 of the Housing In Crisis Report, the domino effect of the bust has trickled down to local levels; here’s an excerpt from the report:

“Another hidden factor relating to the valuation adjustment is the effect of property taxes on housing. A separate analysis needs to be conducted to determine the impact on municipal budgets which developed services based on the recent housing boom. As new construction remains stagnate until the oversupply of housing is absorbed property owners will be impacted with increased levies to cover the short fall of revenue. This increase in property taxes will further erode the financial analysis of affordability.”

As homeowners continue to feel the aftershock of the housing crisis, AccuriZ continues to outline the trends with accurate property data. As the report indicates, an oversupply of housing coupled with other factors has put the market in a position that will take three to five years to return to stable levels.

How do you think the government will react to the rise in tax appeals? 

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