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Manhattan Apartment Market’s Quick Rebound October 8, 2009

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It’s good to see industry analysts confirming what we predicted roughly two months ago. A recent MSNBC articleindicates a surprisingly quick rebound in the Manhattan apartment market as of late. As consumer confidence builds, stability strengthens in the market as stated in our August Manhattan Condo Report and NYC Square Footage and Median Price Differentials report.

In our August report, we projected a sales activity and property values increase in the months of July, August and September.

Source: AccuriZ.com

The recent MSNBC article indicated a sales increase of apartments and co-ops between 46 and 69 percent from the second to the third quarter, with the number of New York’s unsold apartments falling from the peaks of April. Our projections of a 4th Quarter level of stability are appearing to be valid. In the real estate market there are few trusted sources and AccuriZ has been proven to be an authoritative source consistently.

For more statistical reports on property data from public records and property valuations click here.

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Stability for the Manhattan Market in Fruition September 21, 2009

Posted by John Watch in AccuriZ News, News Feed.
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www.bloomberg.com

In a recent New York Times article, fall expectations for the Manhattan real estate market were optimistic as listings show normal levels compared to last year, indicating confidence. Stability is now appearing in the Manhattan market, which was reported in our Manhattan Condo Market article a month ago, as well as the NYC Square Footage Report.

In our Manhattan Condo article, we projected a 4th Quarter of stability after increases in sales activity and property values for the July, August and September months. The recent New York Time article confirmed our predictions. According to the article, 40 percent of new listings in Manhattan after Labor Day were condos while 60 percent were co-ops.

With actual analysis using property data from public records, we indicate the trends accurately and determine the market outlook. While many were concerned with the proposed Shadow Inventory spelling disaster for the Manhattan Market, the numbers projected are now proving otherwise.

Heading into the 4th Quarter, AccuriZ will continue to provide accurate analysis on the market. Hopefully the media outlets like The New York Times will continue to as well.

For additional statistical analysis on Manhattan and other boroughs including property data and valuation, click here.

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Afternoon Real Estate News: 8/12/09 August 12, 2009

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Manhattan Condo Market Projected to Stabilize

Real Estate Industry Getting Creative with Financing Sources

Stock Bulls Increase as Survey Shows Most Optimism in Two Years

Mortgage Assistance Program

The Economic Numbers Tell One Story, Afflicted Homeowners Still Tell Another

Is The Average American Home Shrinking?

Real Estate is: Cyclical, Seasonal and Emotional

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Manhattan Condo Market Projected to Stabilize: Glass is Half Full and Topping Off! August 12, 2009

Posted by John Watch in AccuriZ Reports, News Feed.
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The Manhattan Condominium Market is about to “shock the skeptics”.  There have been numerous reports published by noted “Manhattan Experts”, but a recent article in Crain’s Business week begs of the question “Who is manipulating What and Why? (See the NYC Square Footage Report) (See our repsonse to the Crain’s Business Report)

Has a “Shadow” fallen on the NYC condo market, or is it just another game of smoke and mirrors?  We thank the New York City Department of Finance for enabling those who have the desire to do the actual analysis, assuming one has the ability to do so.  The Department of Finance has provided public records of a rolling sales history since 2003.  This represents all property sales in New York City;  not listings, not possible listings and not sales that didn’t close or the seller backed out.  But Real Sales data! 

DoF also provides public records to the Assessment Rolls for Class I, II, III and IV Properties.  From this Assessment Roll we can find out how many properties exist in each borough and when the property was built.  An individual with some basic computer skills can than run a query to append the sales file with the Assessment file.

Once completed, a further level of skill is required; not a lot of skill, but just a little.  Invalid sales should be stripped out of the analysis.  An invalid sale would be a property that transferred for less than $1,000 dollars.  As a seasoned valuation analyst, I would actually go an additional step and remove all sales that sold for under a $125 per square foot in Manhattan.  The simple fact is that such sales would not be representative of the market and do not come close to representing the actual cost of construction.

So common sense prevails.   In the end, a valid set of sales and property data is available for analysis. The table below indicates that the average and median sales price for condos is declining at a rate of about 8% for the first six months of 2009.  This is much lower than some reports have indicated, but HOLD ON.. there’s more.

Manhattan Condo Market 1

Source: AccuriZ.com

Manhattan Condo Market 2

Source: AccuriZ.com

The chart above considers the rolling average of sales from July 2008 to July 2009.  We have applied this property data to adjust for the over correction in the markets and the seasonal affect of winter sales.  Based on the trend line, we are projecting that for the months of July, August and September sales activity will increase and property values will adjust upward.  Furthermore, the 4th Quarter – which usually shows weaker activity and valuation – will indicate a level of stability.

In short, when you analyze data with a known common factor such as “Square Footage”, manipulation of the data is difficult.  Combine this with an open policy of NYC to provide data free for analysis when it used to cost over $20,000, analyst can now openly check one another.

There is a true check and balance and the latest reports about the Manhattan market are misleading.

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Manhattan Home Prices…Plunge? CNNMoney.Com July 7, 2009

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1210_14_23---Manhattan-Skyline-New-York-City_web

Report from CNNMoney.com.

A couple of things I wanted to point out in this article.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — “The housing bust has finally clobbered super-pricey Manhattan home prices.”

I’ve never heard the word ‘Clobbered’ used for real estate.

 

“Prices fell between 13% and 19% compared with the same quarter last year.”

That doesn’t sound like much of a “Plunge” to me. Decline maybe. Especially when only compared to LAST YEAR.

“Driving the increase were sales of studio apartments and one-bedrooms, both of which gained market share,”

Shouldn’t these properties be evaluated on their own criteria and standards then? Or is it just me…

“It’s value-based shopping,” said Pam Liebman, chief executive of the brokerage Corcoran Group. “People are coming back into the market, but nobody is going to overpay.”

That’s right, so why compile high-value and low-value property data and public records?

Of course, in Manhattan “value” means studio prices that go for a median of $400,000 and one-bedrooms that fetch $650,000.

That’s “high-value” in most cities.

“There are still risks to the economy, both national and local,” Greg Heym said. “But job losses have slowed, consumer confidence is higher and the stock market returned more than 30% during the quarter.”

The only risk is repeating the same process that got us into the mess

“But people shouldn’t think that a bottoming out means a quick rebound,” he said.

Right.

“The entry level market did not fall as far as the high end,” Miller said. “The difference was a jumbo versus a conforming mortgage.”

So seperate the data for the entry level vs. the high end. “Jumbo data vs. Real data”  I guess…

Once the economy recovers, the prospects for the Manhattan housing market are good. The market could quickly tighten again. There’s little new building going on. As a matter of fact, not a single building permit was filed in all of February, according to Heym.

Not so good for builders and contractors. But good for a possible “recovery.” We already have an oversupply.

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Manhattan Apartment Prices Drop as Lehman Effect Hits Home July 2, 2009

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Manhattan Apartment Prices Drop as Lehman Effect Hits Home | Bloomberg.com

This Bloomberg.com article explains the price delcine of Manhattan homes since the housing boom. In various reports released today, Manhattan median prices dropped between 13 and 19 percent.

So what does this mean?

From a general standpoint, it shows that Manhattan – like most, if not all other markets in the country – is suffering from a decline in price values. This can be easily seen with public records. What these reports do not dig deeper to find, is exactly what markets are being the most hit. Condos? Co-Ops? Properties over $1 million? With these reports, YOU have to interpret the trends and determine the conclusions. Why should that be? Here are a few questions to ask:

Quote: The price of studio apartments declined 16 percent from a year ago to a median of $405,000, according to Miller Samuel. One-bedrooms dropped 17 percent to $650,000 and two-bedrooms fell 23 percent to $1.27 million. Three-bedroom units fell 37 percent to $2.35 million and four-bedrooms plummeted 47 percent to a median of $3.92 million.

Question(s): It’s safe to say that the average buyer is NOT in the market looking for anything remotely close to $1 million. Unless asking prices gravitate more toward actual sales, properties will sit and wait. The declining values is a natural reaction to overpriced ones. Also, what is the price per square foot of these types of properties?

Quote: About 32 percent of second-quarter listings included discounts from the original asking price, according to StreetEasy.com, a Web site that gathers Manhattan property listings from brokers. The deepest concessions were on Central Park South and in the Financial District, where list prices were pared by an average of 10 percent.

Question: (From Streeteasy Website, regarding Manhattan Condo Listings) “Medians for listings from past 60 days from StreetEasy data. Excludes some extraordinary properties. No representation is made as to the accuracy of this data.” …Really?

Looking at things from a median sale price is just that, the median. In this diverse housing market, with different properties, seasonal upticks and sizes, analyzing the property data on a price per square foot basis makes the market less scary, and more factual. 

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